A company= Goose that lays Golden eggs

This post will be a digression from my previous posts. Just that my recent passion for stock markets has made me think about what a company means to an investor. So my analogy is this- A company is like a goose that lays golden eggs. The analogy goes like this:

A goose (company) is typically reared (managed) by a farmer who takes care of it day to day. The goose requires to mate with other gander (customers) in order to lay golden eggs(Profits). To lay good eggs the goose should be healthy (Healthy company-operationally) and attractive (marketing/positioning). In order to ensure the same the farmer has to keep the goose in best condition through regular supply of fodder (working capital) and other upkeep(governance, processes etc.) to keep it attractive and healthy (day to day management). Also the gander are pretty finicky and unfaithful. The gander easily get bored and are ready to move to new goose(competitors) in the vicinity. To remain attractive the goose needs to stay healthy, take on new look (restructuring)etc. Goose may even find new ways to attract Gander (diversification). All this is a heavy task for the farmer and he needs money.

So to raise his goose the farmer can either borrow money (debt) or raise money by selling ownership of goose (equity). So a farmer goes to other people (investors) and says that he is willing to forgo a fraction of his future earnings to someone provided he gets reasonable money for it. Now these other people are supposed to make an assessment of the number of future golden eggs they can get and value the price they should pay (valuation).

This in short is my analogy of a company and the goose that lays golden eggs.

Zen master in Communicating through hollywood

I once incidentally saw a movie on HBO. (ohhh.... I love watching movies)-Charlie Wilson's war. Following is a dialogue in the last scene  of the movie


Gust Avrakotos: There's a little boy and on his 14th birthday he gets a horse... and everybody in the village says, "how wonderful. The boy got a horse" And the Zen master says, "we'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight... except the boy can't cause his legs all messed up. and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful." 
Charlie Wilson: Now the Zen master says, "We'll see." 


Reference: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0472062/quotes?qt0436729

Probably it may not sound so powerful while just reading it, however in the movie (based on US' covert support for Afghan rebels during Russian occupation) it is masterfully placed and conveys a very serious and thought provoking message.

Summary of the message was thus : You may think yourself to be doing good while in the end the result is f**ked up beyond recognition. Similarly you may be messing up and suddenly there is a heap of rewards in front of you.

I wouldn't go too much further in this post because probably zen master explains it the best.
Just  simple questions for you whenever something positive happens to you: What just happened was good? really? should i rejoice? or maybe should i not?

Probably this positive may lead to something not really positive or something real bad.

Similarly for every negative outcome: Is it bad? really? Should i be sad? or maybe not. This negative may lead to something positive which you might have not thought of before or considered possible.

In short be a little skeptic when good happens and little content when something bad happens. It is a natural course of life and what happens is how it is meant to be.

The Power of Pilgrimage

I am a very recent believer. I don't know if it is me or the influence of my wife but I never knew I would become so. For a person who has tries not to go temple I have been to Shirdi and Shani Shidnapur twice. Both the places are considered by devotees to be a place where wishes come true. Just go there and ask what you want and it shall be granted.

Probably i found that something worked for me. Probably it would have worked anyways. However i went with the thought "As well believe it".

I am a rational human being with scientific thought and philosophical musings. God to me is not a figure. To me God is a system too elaborate in complexity for common human comprehension. Still I believe that a trip to a religious place does help you "wish and achieve".

A major driver of what we do and what we are able to do is our subconscious. We achieve only what we think we can achieve. Only a thought is  deep rooted in our subconscious that we can do something and no shred of doubt exists there, there is very little that can stop us from achieving it (I didn't take that idea from inception, i took it from Kung Fu Panda). Lets say when I heard of it i thought about my life and saw how it really happened in a few situations and have come to believe in it.

To those wondering what I am doing digressing here and there let me tie the two threads- pilgrimage and subconscious. I would like to define the rewarding effects of pilgrimage as follows: Pilgrimage is a way of programming your subconscious.

It starts with a thought of doing it. The thought of just going to visit God makes you feel good thereby setting the base (there goes your # include).

1. Once you start planning for it you start setting yourself up. Well begun is half done you think, and when that half done is meeting God himself you are just sailing in the wave of self congratulation.

2. After planning starts the journey and hard work. Be it time and effort (driving or walking) or only time (Sitting in the backseat) you are investing yourself- committing to a purpose of meeting God.

3. The final step is when you actually end up in front of the deity itself. Just that it is only a view. Nothing apparently happens. Rather in order to be politically correct nothing manifests itself. Its just there in front of you and it is completely stationary. It is just then when you bow with respect and reverence that you take a leap of faith. You believe that God is in front of you and can listen to you. Mind you it is the conditioning in the first three steps that take you to this state you are ready to believe anything as you think God is in front of it. There is a heightened state which makes you feel powerful and there is nothing that you feel is above you. You can do anything, anything at all. When you make a wish in such a state you already have started believing that you can do it.

Therein lies the secret on how wishes are granted in pilgrimages. Or rather this is my theory on how prayers come true.

As usual do let me know your comments. Also do let me know if I have by mistake hurt any sentiments1

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Why we do what we do?

In my last post I detailed out how our reactions to circumstances create circumstances of the future.

This may give a reader hope that he/ she can determine his/her own future. This belief can be attributed as partly true. Though the fact is that we can only aim at a target future and the actual may be very different based upon external factors. It is like shooting an arrow on a desired target but the wind deviates it course.

Taking this target and arrow conjecture there are two questions that arise.

1. How do we determine our target?
2. How do we aim?

The questions seem simple to answer but they are not.

Take a moment and think. Determine two points in the future- One should be in the very near future- Today 5 PM perhaps and second is say 5-10 years later. Now think about what do you want your circumstance to be during both those points.

Suppose the answers are

1. I want to be back at home today at 5 PM
2. I want to be a multi millionaire in 10 years

These two being the desired circumstances the question I want to pose is why these two only? Why should it happen that everybody will have a different (atleast slightly different) answer to these questions.

This leads me to a conclusion: The sum total of all our experiences in the past have a major effect on our present thought process.

I would like to explain experience in my framework before carrying on. An experience is the impression made by a circumstance, reaction and event on the human thought. For every cicrcumstance we react in a particular manner, which results into something +ve or -ve. This whole cycle creates an impression on our mind. We call this impression an experience. All these experiences collect somewhere back in our minds and we subconsciously refer to most relevant experiences whenever a circumstance presents itself.

The above answers of mine are a distillation of what I have interpreted from my experiences. It all distills down to these. This is how I and you decide our targets. Now I will explain how we aim.

Close your eyes and imagine that you are on top of a very high building. What else flashes? I bet all the similar moments when you were standing somewhere high. What do you think? You will think based upon whatever your experience was during those moments. They will be either dread or joy based upon whatever your experiences were. Then there will be another round of experiences - you may think about your loved ones and experiences with them and so on.

You will feel a huge push behind you. This is a push created by all the experiences brought forward to you by your subconscious. This push drives you to one particular action. However there may be another set of experiences which may lead to another contradictory action. For example your experiences which may lead you to want to discard any fear of height. Its now you get a choice. The choice you take is the aim you take and determines what is your desired circumstance (the target).

Thus our experiences in the past suggests to us the options that we can take, makes us decide on what we think we want to be. Its Us who has to choose. How we choose also depends on our experience but still I believe that humans have enough will power to choose otherwise.

Please note that the targets (desired circumstance) we set for ourselves may not be perfect and our aim (choice) maybe completely wayward, but these are the end results of how we (and the world) have programmed ourselves.

This is how we evolve our so called destiny. It is just a programming of our past, choices in the present and the effect of external factors  (guided by the unity of the universe) in the future.

Please comment if you have any views on my posts. I am waiting




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How Past affects the Future

This is a little bit in continuation with my previous post. I have my oddities and you have your oddities. We are all different characters. If in an experiment we were put inside and exactly similar situation we will definitely react differently. Why is that so? Why are you and why am I different?

Now i remember a movie dialog from some obscure movie I saw in the good old days of Doordarshan: "मैं पेट से चोर पैदा नहीं हुआ था. "(I was not born a thief). The thief tells us what I want to reiterate today-' Its our past which frames our present, our future is shaped by our past and the present'. This may not look like a huge conclusion to you, but think about it in little detail as follows. Look at your present- Why are u sitting/lying at the location you are, why are you in front of this particular computer reading at this particular blog. For example if you are in Mumbai (what were the events that led you to Mumbai? What were the events that lead you to those events?), Why are you in front of computer? Why do you have a computer? Why did you search for this blog? Why did you end up on this one?

If we create a backwards issue tree in detail we will reach to one particular conclusion all of us: " This moment is the sum total of results of all (Yes ALL) events of the past". This implies that your present circumstance is nothing but a consequence of our actions in the past.

What about the future? The future as a corollary will be a sum of all events in the past and all events from present to the future. We can react positively, negatively or lethargically to the present circumstance. The circumstance arising from past events in our life.

(How does an event result: You have a circumstance, you react to it and the result is an event. For example I had free time, I wrote and I have this blog- an event. An event may just not be a circumstance * reaction- The event may also be affected by external events- other people's actions or climate etc.)

Even though the circumstance is not in our control anymore we have the option of reacting to it in a way we like (I have a theory on why we react the way we react) and trying to come up with an event which will better our future.

We are like people and our destiny is a ship. The direction the ship takes is based on our reactions to present circumstance. We can only try to control the direction though the direction may depend on host of factors. The whole thought is as shown in the diagram below:

The figure below shows how we navigate our lives:

So the conclusion is that the time of action is NOW and NOW only. There is no other time. Being Inactive now affects your future. 

The above is my line of thought. I would like to know what you would think of it? Please comment.

My next blog will be on why we react in a certain way to any circumstance. 

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Unity of the universe

I recently read this book "The Tao of Physics". I will admit that i didn't understand most of it and I don't appreciate a lot of what the author 'implied'- Modern science tending to Eastern Mystical thought. However I will concede that I found the book a little informative. It made me understand a lot about quantum physics, relativity theory. It also made me understand lot about Hindu, Buddhist, Zen and Tao thought etc.

My post today will be really a "Random thought" as below: 

Reading the book and thinking a lot I have developed a belief. Each and every act by everybody effects everybody (Humans, Animals and the Inanimate). I don't imply that we have the right to meddle in other people's affairs. What I state here is that each and every thing that we do or happens happens exactly the way it is supposed to happen. There is no other alternative. This is the only way the worldly equilibrium can be maintained.

For example: Today is a lazy Sunday afternoon and I am writing this blog. How does it affect your life? It affects your life in the following manner-

1. I could have been doing a million different things rather than writing this blog right now (Lets take 3):
• Watching television
• Working on career development
• Making plans for world domination
2. Now these scenarios could effect you in a hundred different ways
• Watching television
• I could gain an idea and discuss this with a friend. he writes a status update on facebook related to it. You are his friend's friend and you see it. You build some knowledge around it. You are asked some question in your job interview which you can answer based on what you learnt
• I see a news show. Gain some knowledge. Call up KBC lines. End up at fastest fingers first opposite to you and then beat you there. 
• etc. etc.
• Working on career development
• I end up in an interview panel where you interview me and you select me (and then you suffer me)
• I beat you in an interview
• I get misguided and lose to you
• I interview you
• I interview some relative of yours and select him. Your cousin idolizes that relative and follows his footsteps. The cousin is successful and he proves a great help to you in your bad times
• Making plans for world domination
• I dominate the world- you get affected
• I do something real crazy- somebody you know gets affected. you get depressed
• I don't do anything- but i am still out there
3. All the above means that in that case i don't write this particular blog. Now
• You are not reading it now
• Any effect, belief or comic relief this blog brings to you is negated. The corresponding after effects too
• You would be doing something else rather than reading this blog
• That something else could have affected so many others (including me). In turn this would affect so many others

The universe would be absolutely different if I am not writing this blog. We can say it cud have been better or worse. In a mystical sense however I would say that any other scenario the universe would be unstable. Me writing this blog right now and you reading it right now or not reading it at all is the only way the universe can be stable.

There seems to be a suggestion here that we don't have control or choice about our actions. However I would think of it differently. There can be no action without control or choice. Lets not desist ourselves from doing any good, striving for excellence, caring for others because we think that we don't have choice or control. Our ability to have a choice and control over our very own actions keeps this Universe in equilibrium. We can hope that doing good will spread good. Lets do what we want to do and the Universe to take care of its own. Thus the Bhagvad Gita says

कर्म कर फल की इच्छा न कर. 

"Do your job don't care about results or rewards"

If anybody really does read this post and finds it worth a thought. Please do drop in a comment

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A Cricket Fan's proof of why infinity*0 is indefinite

I have a hypothesis ( which i won't prove). The hypothesis states that cricket fans on an average are better at arithmetic than football fans. Note i mentioned arithmetic and not mathematics. The reason for my hypothesis is straightforward, a cricket fan is usually always calculating future scenarios. What if he hits a 6 the run rate will become 5.4 or if he makes 10 runs in next over required run rate comes down to 4.6 etc. etc.

Probably its just me who does that. Since i am never going to make a serious attempt at proving my hypothesis (which would be to make sample groups of cricket and non cricket fans and average their high school mathematics grade etc etc) I will leave my hypothesis open to discussion.

I have this passion of trying to calculate net effect of run rate on each ball ( as well as find inflection points on all line graphs they show on television).

One fine day as a kid in class 10th i realised that the batsman scores at an infinite rate (India was probably chasing some hopeless target) when there is a no or wide ball. 1 run in 0 balls is infinite scoring rate. However since the number of balls bowled is 0 the net addition of runs to the total is only 1. Suppose the batsman scores an additional single in the no ball. Scoring rate is still infinite. However since the number of balls is 0 the addition of runs is only 2.

In the first case     : infinity*0=1
In the second case: infinity*0=2

Leading me to the conclusion that infinity*0 is indefinite.

To a graduate this may seem trivial, but try this explanation to a youngster who heard that infinity *0 is indefinite. I am sure it will be a revelation to him. Make sure u don't end up explaining 0/0 as 1 because that is wrong.











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